The ISS study “Return to normal: COVID-19 vaccination under mitigation measures” has indicated the date by which we will reach a “zero-Covid” level in Italy
When will we return to normal? When can we say goodbye to masks, social distancing and restrictions? When will we start going out in the evening, playing sports and travelling around the world again? These are the questions that each of us has asked (and Googled) at least once in the last few months. The answers are usually very general and not very scientifically founded. In the last few hours, however, there may be an important breakthrough. In fact, an authoritative study carried out by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), the Fondazione Bruno Kessler and the Italian Ministry of Health has just been published. It is a statistical and epidemiological analysis of data from the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy. The researchers collected the numbers from the Italian regions and processed them to determine a date by which we can finally ‘return to normal’. The study is entitled ‘Return to normal: COVID-19 vaccination under mitigation measures’ and sets out a timeframe in which we can finally say goodbye to restrictive measures and Coronavirus infections.
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Covid: when will we get back to normal? ISS sets the date
“We estimate,” say the authors of the study, “that with at least 4 vaccinations per day per 1000 inhabitants, it will be possible to eliminate the restrictive measures within 7 to 13 months from the start of vaccination. The experts point out that these times depend on numerous variables. The most important are the number of vaccines administered and the transmissibility of the virus. “It will be necessary to vaccinate at least 500,000 people a day and to keep infections below the threshold of 50 positives per week per 100,000 inhabitants. A 20% increase in the incidence of variants of the virus could extend the time frame by up to two years. If we manage to meet the parameters set by the ISS, then the situation in Italy should improve considerably by July 2021. However, we will have to wait several more months to reach the “Zero – Covid” level (zero restrictive measures and zero infections). The study assumes that the infamous ‘zero quota’ will not be reached by Italy until January/February 2022 at the earliest. “In any case,” assure experts from the Ministry of Health and the ISS, “with the vaccine there should be 80% fewer deaths than without vaccinations between now and February.
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