Monitor confirmed data to predict the development of the Coronavirus pandemic and assess when the emergency will be finally overcome.
This is a predictive analysis based on existing data: in this series of infographics from the Data Driven Innovation Lab, the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model is used with Milan Batista‘s algorithm and data from different countries provided by Our World in Data, to estimate the pandemic life cycle curves and predict when the pandemic could end in the world.
Our World in Data has also provided a series of documents with partial data on the evolution of the pandemic (on which the study relies), so far:
Total confirmed cases: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/ecdc/total_cases.csv
New confirmed cases: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/ecdc/new_cases.csv
All four metrics: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/ecdc/full_data.csv
Population data: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/ecdc/locations.csv
The call for caution on the end of the pandemic
However, these are not definitive estimates: the forecasts are nevertheless destined to change in line with changes in the world’s scenarios in real time and are updated daily with the latest data.
The study also calls for caution, specifying that the data contained are to be considered for educational and research purposes and may contain errors.
In fact, the model and data may be inaccurate with respect to the complex, evolving and heterogeneous realities of different countries, because the forecasts are uncertain by nature and the excessive optimism based on some expected expiry dates risks pushing us to lower our guard on the measures necessary to contain the spread of the virus.
L’Osservatorio della Salute nelle Regioni Italiane has also recently provided a forecast, on a regional basis, of the pandemic curve of the Coronavirus in our country, in which Emilia Romagna and Lombardia were among the last to return to normal living conditions.
La curva della pandemia a livello globale
Forecasts on the end of the emergency Country by country: Italy
The complete list of infographics with other countries analyzed can be found on the dedicated website of the Data Driven Innovation Lab.
What is the purpose of predictive analysis on the Coronavirus pandemic
The function of estimating an exit date from the emergency situation, is functional for most people to start planning the future moves that will have to be made for the restart.
What we can do while the situation is still critical is to use our knowledge of previous models and continuously updated data on the current pandemic to make objective predictions about how the situation is going to evolve.
This “predictive monitoring” may be able to reduce “blindness” issues about future developments, avoiding over-optimism (or pessimism) and stimulating the implementation of precautionary or pro-active operations, transforming our planning into “more informed about the future”.